The period of transition from hunter-gatherers to agriculture is considered the time of sedentarisation. The period of sedentarisation also coincides with the emergence of patriarchy, and agriculture begins to differentiate from pure carnivory towards a plant-based diet. With the help of a mathematical simulation model, researchers have succeeded in gaining new insights into the transition from hunter-gatherer to arable farming societies. Instead of focussing exclusively on external factors, they examined internal demographic factors and the significance of human interactions. The model identified potential societal impacts based on demographic changes and emphasised aspects such as migration rates, cultural assimilation and the role of mortality rates in these transitions.
Leipzig/Germany, April 01, 2025 The study of the transition from hunting and gathering to agriculture is of central importance in human history. This transition is often attributed to external factors such as environmental changes. The change can have taken place in two ways: Either different groups developed agriculture independently, or these early farmers interacted with hunter-gatherers who then adopted the new techniques.
‘In our new study, we argue that humans were not just passive participants in this process, but played an active and crucial role in this transition,’ says lead author Alfredo Cortell-Nicolau from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology in Leipzig and the University of Cambridge in the UK. ‘We are focussing on how the population dynamics of these groups directly influenced the introduction of agriculture.’ To investigate this, the research team has adapted a simulation model from ecology that depicts the interactions between different species, particularly between predators and prey. In this model, the farmers are the ‘predators’ who gradually displace the ‘prey’, the hunters and gatherers. Factors such as group migration and cultural assimilation were also included in the analysis.
Radiocarbon data as a proxy for demographic parameters
The researchers used radiocarbon dating as the basis for this model. These data, mainly obtained from organic material, serve as a demographic proxy – the more data, the larger the population.
‘By statistically fitting our model to the observed population dynamics that we were able to derive from the radiocarbon dates, we can better understand how our variables relate to the existing archaeological record,’ explains co-author Enrico Crema from the University of Cambridge. ‘With our model, we can investigate which conditions may have favoured a rapid expansion of agriculture or a longer continuation of hunter-gatherer life.’
The researchers also applied the model to specific case studies – eastern Spain (Spain), the island of Kyushu (Japan) and Scandinavia (Denmark). The study of these regions showed how various factors, such as different population growth or mortality rates caused by competition between hunter-gatherers and farmers, played a role in the development of agriculture in these regions.
Expanding the archaeological toolbox
‘Our study provides valuable insights into various aspects of prehistoric societies. Using this method, we were able to determine the impact of population growth on historical developments and observe some interesting phenomena, such as how the type of agricultural expansion – on land or at sea – influenced the demographic dynamics of interacting groups,’ explains co-author Javier Rivas from the University of Bath in Großbritannien. ‘In a broader sense, the model shows the role that migration rates and social assimilation played in the spread of agriculture.’
In the future, the researchers want to incorporate more complex factors and apply their model to larger regions. ‘We hope that the methods we have developed will one day become a standard tool for the study of past demographic interactions and provide insights into many prehistoric transitional phases beyond the transition to agriculture,’ say the authors.
Original publication:
Cortell-Nicolau, A., Rivas, J., Crema, E.R., Shennan, S., García-Puchol, O., Kolář, J., Staniuk, R., Timpson, A.
Demographic interactions between the last hunter-gatherers and the first farmers
PNAS, 31 March 2025, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2416221122
ImageSource
Oreto García-Puchol, view from the Cova de les Cendres (Alacant, Spain). The first farmers arrived in this area by sea.
Oreto García-Puchol, excavations in the Cova de les Cendres (Alacant, Spain), one of the sites included in the current study.